In September 2025, Frieze Seoul is set to open its fourth edition. Every year, this art fair draws global attention and has now become more than just a seasonal event—it functions as a strategic platform that influences the structure and identity of the Korean art market. While much interest remains in what works will be shown and what records might be broken this year, a more pressing question is emerging within the art world: “What will happen to Frieze Seoul and Kiaf after 2026?”

This question gains urgency because the global art market is currently experiencing a significant downturn. Economic recession, weakened collector sentiment, and declining auction figures all point to a macroeconomic slowdown in the arts sector. Against this backdrop, the future of both Frieze Seoul and Kiaf hinges on their performance this year, making it a critical moment for determining their strategic direction and potential survival pathways.

When Frieze first entered Korea in 2022, it announced a five-year plan to co-host the fair alongside Kiaf. With the end of that commitment approaching, the key issue is how both parties will move forward. Will they maintain the partnership? Will they separate? Or, more drastically, could Frieze pull out of Seoul altogether?

Based on ongoing trends, insider developments, and global art market shifts, K-ARTNOW outlines three possible scenarios for the post-2026 landscape. This is not merely about the fate of two art fairs, but a larger inquiry into how Kiaf—which currently leans heavily on its association with Frieze—can evolve into a truly international platform on its own terms.

Scenario 1: Strategic Co-Existence Reinvented

The first possibility is that Frieze and Kiaf continue their partnership in Seoul beyond 2026. However, this would require a fundamental redesign of their co-existence, moving from parallel operation to a more refined and strategic collaboration.

Frieze brings global branding and networks; Kiaf contributes local infrastructure and artist ecosystems. This complementary relationship could remain viable if both parties invest in restructuring their operational framework—including clear brand separation, upgraded coordination standards, and more intentional collaboration.

From Kiaf's perspective, there's growing recognition that dependency on Frieze is problematic. The idea that "the art world only moves when Frieze arrives" could ultimately undermine the autonomy and long-term sustainability of Korea’s domestic ecosystem. Still, reverting to a purely local model is not a viable alternative.

Kiaf needs to balance its local foundation with increasing international influence. To achieve this, internal reform is essential for Kiaf, while Frieze must be willing to project a long-term strategy rooted in Seoul. In this scenario, co-existence can only remain viable if reframed as a strategic partnership—not a habitual arrangement.

Scenario 2: Frieze Operates Independently in Seoul

The second scenario envisions Frieze continuing to operate in Seoul after 2026 but severing ties with Kiaf. This path mirrors Frieze's previous expansion strategies in other cities such as New York and Chicago, where initial collaborations eventually gave way to fully independent operations.

From Frieze’s perspective, Seoul remains a vital strategic hub in Asia. With Hong Kong facing political risk, Japan's market remaining rigid, and Singapore lacking a robust art ecosystem, Seoul stands out for its blend of young collectors, mid-range artists, and private institutions.

Independent operation would grant Frieze greater curatorial consistency and branding autonomy, while maximizing add-on value through VIP programs and satellite events. For Kiaf, however, this would mean reimagining its September fair without Frieze’s gravitational pull.

Still, this scenario suggests a "healthy separation," where both platforms could more fully express their unique identities. Kiaf, having observed Frieze's operations up close, might even adopt some of its strategies to strengthen its own platform.

Scenario 3: Frieze Exits Seoul Altogether

The most dramatic scenario is that Frieze withdraws from Seoul after 2026. Though it may seem unlikely on the surface, such a move could be plausible if Frieze recalibrates its long-term global strategy.

Internally, Frieze may be accumulating fatigue from logistical complexity, partnership tensions, or disconnect with the local ecosystem. Externally, other cities in Asia are actively positioning themselves as Frieze’s next expansion targets—from Bangkok and Tokyo to Shanghai and even Dubai.

If Frieze chooses to exit, it may not be a retreat but rather a strategic reset. Seoul could be seen as a meaningful testbed that, while valuable, does not align with Frieze's long-term goals.

Such a withdrawal would undoubtedly shock the Korean art world. But it could also liberate Kiaf from its reliance on Frieze, opening space for the rise of indigenous platforms. Seoul, once a city "chosen" by Frieze, would now face the challenge of choosing itself.


 
A Moment for Strategic Choices

The question of what happens after 2026 is not merely about the continuation of a partnership. It is about how the Korean art market envisions and redefines its role in the global landscape.

Whether Frieze stays, separates, or leaves, every scenario contains both risks and opportunities. The most important question is not which option is easiest, but which is most sustainable. This year's outcomes will likely determine the choices available next year—choices that could shape the future identity and strategy of both Frieze and Kiaf.